In the world of betting, when you come across the term EVS (Evens), think of a perfect balance. It's the equivalent of flipping a coin – a 50/50 probability that the betting company assigns to each possible outcome.
What is an EVS bet actually?
To put it simply, imagine a scenario where two perfectly equal teams face each other. The bookmaker sees their chances of winning as identical. It is this balance that translates into specific odds that you need to know how to spot.
In the world of betting, EVS is a fundamental concept. Historically and statistically, it indicates a complete equality of chances between two parties. In concrete terms, EVS translates to fractional odds. 1/1This means that if your bet wins, you will double the amount invested, which reflects a probability of winning of 50%For more details on this concept, you can find valuable information at the meaning of EVS in betting according to Profithawk.co.uk.
Careful: An EVS bet does not guarantee a true 50/50 outcome. It simply reflects the betting company's assessment of the probability, which, as we know, does not always match reality.
Understanding this difference is the first step towards making smarter betting decisions.
EVS quote translation
The table below clearly shows how the EVS (Evens) quote is presented in different formats and the probability it represents.
termi |
Fractional Quota |
December Quota |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
EVS (Evens) |
1/1 |
2.00 |
50% |
As you can see, each format has its own way of presenting itself, but they all convey the same message: an equal opportunity.
The image below illustrates the distribution of bets based on their expected value (EV), a concept closely related to this topic.
What is striking is that a significant portion of the bets analyzed have a positive expected value. This shows us that with the right analysis, finding value in bets is entirely possible, even when the odds seem balanced.
Understanding Expected Value (EV)
While EVS is simply a quota, Expected Value (EV) is the strategic mindset that professionals use. It is very important not to confuse these two terms. EV is not a specific quote, but a mathematical formula that tells us whether a bet is worth playing in the long run.
Think of it this way: an EVS bet (at odds of 2.00) is like a hammer in your toolbox. EV, on the other hand, is the manual that tells you exactly when and how to use that hammer to build something of value. Successful bettors don’t just look at the odds; they analyze whether those odds hide real value. This is where EV shows its power.
Professionals use this concept to see if the probability they give to an outcome is higher than the probability suggested by the company's odds. This analysis divides all bets into two main categories.
Positive value versus negative value
All bets can be classified based on their expected value. Understanding this difference is the first step towards consistent profits.
- Positive Expected Value (+EV): This is your main mission. A bet has + EV when the real odds you have calculated for winning are greater than the probability implied by the odds. These are the bets that, over time, will bring you profit.
- Negative Expected Value (-EV): These are "trap" bets that should be avoided. Here, the probability implied by the company is higher than the actual chance of winning, which in the long run means loss.
A bet is considered + EV when the probability of winning is higher than what the odds reflect. For example, if your analysis shows that the real probability of a win is 60%, but the quote offered represents a chance of 50%, then you have found a bet with positive value. Calculating EV in sports is a real challenge due to the many variables, unlike games like poker where the probabilities are fixed and easier to calculate.
This transition from the simple concept of odds (EVS) to the strategic one (EV) is the first step in transforming from an amateur bettor into a well-informed strategist.
To further deepen your knowledge, take a look at our guide on how to understand betting odds and sure betsThis will give you an even stronger foundation for identifying profitable opportunities.
How to find bets with positive value?
This is where the fun part begins: moving from theory to practice. Finding bets with positive value (+EV) is where assumptions turn into measurable decisions, giving you a real advantage over bookmakers. The key tool for this? The Expected Value (EV) formula.
It may seem technical at first, but the formula is surprisingly simple. It helps you calculate the average profit (or loss) you could expect from a bet if you were to place it an infinite number of times under the same conditions.
The basic formula for calculating EV is:
EV = (Probability of winning x Net profit) – (Probability of losing x Amount bet)
To use this formula, you need two things: the amount you risk and the potential profit (you get from the odds), and your personal assessment of the real probability of an outcome.
Practical calculation example
Let's make it clearer with a concrete example from a football match. Imagine a match between Juventus and Inter, where the bookmaker offers a quote 3.00 for Inter's victory. You decide to take the risk 10€ in this bet.
Now comes the crucial step: your analysis. After studying the statistics, the players' form and other factors, you conclude that the realistic probability of Inter winning is 40%, and not 33.3% as the quote suggests (1 / 3.00).
Now, let's plug the numbers into the formula:
- Bet amount: 10€
- Net profit: (€10 x 3.00) – €10 = €20
- Probability of winning (according to you): 40% (or 0.40)
- Probability of loss: 60% (or 0.60)
Calculation: EV = (0.40 x €20) – (0.60 x €10) = €8 – €6 = +2€
This result shows that the bet has a positive expected value. This means that, in the long run, for every €10 you place on this type of bet, you can expect an average profit of €2.
Managing such situations is essential. For example, some bettors may consider using cash out betting option if the match is going in their favor, to ensure a guaranteed profit. This, however, may reduce the total expected value (EV) of the bet.
Applying concepts to different sports
The principles of EVS and +EV are not limited to football; they are universal concepts that apply to any sport. When you learn how to find value, your ability to identify profitable opportunities extends beyond the green field, including disciplines from tennis to basketball.
This flexibility is at the heart of any successful betting strategy. Instead of being locked into just one sport, truly understanding the EVS and expected value opens the door to an endless range of markets. Simply put, this means more chances to catch the "mistakes" of betting companies in the odds they offer.
When you learn to look beyond the odds and assess real probability, every sport becomes a potential arena for +EV betting. That's the secret to maintaining a long-term advantage.
Let's look at some concrete examples of how these concepts are applied in two extremely popular sports.
Tennis: an example with +EV
Imagine a tennis match between two players with similar rankings. The betting company may have set the match at EVS odds (i.e., 2.00 for each), practically saying that both have 50% chances of winning. This is where your analytical work begins.
You start the search and discover that, regardless of ranking, one of the players:
- Has a superior balance sheet 5-1 in direct confrontations.
- He's coming off a fantastic run of form, having just won an important tournament last week.
- The court surface is where he shines and favors his style.
Based on these facts, you conclude that his real probability of winning is not 50%, but probably closer to XNUMX%. 60%This difference between your estimate and the odds offered by the bookmaker creates a pure +EV opportunity.
Basketball: over/under market
Now, let's move on to basketball and analyze the total points (over/under) market. Let's assume that the line for a game is set at 210.5 points, with EVS (i.e. equal) odds for both sides, "over" and "under".
A casual bettor might see this as a coin toss. But a careful analyst will dig deeper into the statistics. Perhaps both teams are known for their extremely fast pace of play and have a very high efficiency in attack.
Your statistical analysis might reveal that their combined average points in recent games is 218By spotting this discrepancy, you can place a bet on the "over" option with much more confidence, because you know you are playing with a positive expected value.
Tools that professionals use
Winning bets today are no longer just about intuition or how well you know a sport. The days of winning by "feeling" alone are over. True professionals have taken it to the next level, using advanced technology and strategies to provide a real and lasting advantage against the bookmakers.
This new approach has transformed betting from a game of chance into an analytical discipline. At the heart of this transformation is the use of analytical software and statistical models, which relentlessly scan the markets to automatically find bets with positive expected value (+EV).
Strategies that come from analysis
These technological tools are not just programs; they are the engine that drives specific strategies, proven for their effectiveness. Two of the most popular methods that are based precisely on finding value are:
- Value Betting: This is the basic strategy. Here, the bettor finds odds that are higher than the actual probability of an outcome. It is the practical application of the +EV concept.
- Arbitrage Betting: This method exploits the small differences in odds between different companies for the same match. By betting on all possible outcomes, the bettor secures a small but guaranteed profit, regardless of how the match ends.
These are not just empty theories. A perfect example of success is that of Greg Ehrenberg, a famous American bettor. He reported a profit of over 116 units deciding more than 1,900 bets in the NBA in a single year. How did he do it? By using an analytics tool that automatically identified +EV prospects.
Using statistical models is no longer a luxury, but a necessity for anyone looking to make consistent profits in the world of sports betting.
At the end of the day, success in betting is a combination of deep analysis, the right tools, and a systematic approach. By understanding these elements, you too can begin to build your own winning strategy. To expand your knowledge, take a look at our article on essential online betting terminology to strengthen the foundations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Still have questions?## Frequently Asked Questions
Still confused? That's perfectly normal. The world of betting can sometimes seem complicated, but we're here to make things simple. Below you'll find answers to some of the most common questions about EVS and expected value, which will help you better understand the game.
Is an EVS (Evens) bet always a good choice?
No, not at all. An EVS bet (with odds 2.00) simply tells us how the bookmaker sees the match: an even chance 50% for each result. But that's just their point of view.
A really good bet doesn't depend on the odds, but on Positive Expected Value (+EV)If your analysis tells you that the real probability of winning is over 50%, then that bet has + EV and it is worth playing. On the contrary, if you think the odds are smaller, then the bet has negative value (-EV) and it is better to skip it.
Can I identify +EV bets without using formulas?
Yes, absolutely. Highly experienced bettors often develop a kind of "sniff" for value. They can look at a quote and immediately know that something is wrong, without having to pull out a calculator. This comes from deep knowledge and long experience.
However, this method is based on intuition and can be subjective. Using the EV formula turns this feeling into a concrete and measurable number, providing a much stronger basis for making profitable decisions in the long term.
The main difference between EVS and +EV: Think of it this way: EVS is a specific quota (2.00) which indicates a 50/50 chance according to the bookmaker – it is simply the “price” offered. On the other hand, +EV is a strategic concept that indicates that a bet is profitable in the long term because the actual probability of the event is higher than what the odds suggest. A bet can have +EV on any type of odds, not just EVS.
For more in-depth analysis and data-driven predictions, Baste Sportive is your trusted source. Explore our tools to make more informed decisions in https://www.baste-sportive.com.
